Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face

Singapore PM Lawrence Wong’s short video to citizens explained how we, too should be thinking about this moment ‘with clear eyes’.

Yet since Wednesday, all sorts of financial market celebrities have been begging Trump to pivot or texting The Treasury Secretary furiously: it may be dawning on these financial market celebrities that for the first time in twenty or thirty years, it’s not about them.

Last week the leveraged momentum voting machine had a head on collision with Benjamin Graham’s weighing machine.

It may be a while before the former emerges from the repair shop. For patient capital, that is fine.

For impatient capital, not so much because as experienced as he is, Bessent is not going to save you.

Clean things up eventually, sure; but he is not going to save you.

Markets have put too much faith in Bessent’s ability to influence a man (Trump) whose sole influencer is himself.

We could do what so many others are posting or writing about: predict (gamble) when Trump might be forced to pivot.

I don’t think that is a wise strategy.

Better: pencil in 0% real US GDP in both of Q2 and Q3 2025 then ask what’s then the organic clearing price for the S&P500 and US credit? In the absence of a pivot which I do not think is imminent, lower and much wider remain the answer.

There has been no hint of a Trump pivot this weekend, so the vol-adjusted reduction in positions, and the churn, will continue.

What do we do?

Be like the 1%.

Not that 1% - the leveraged beta shills who confused brains with a bull market.

No, be like the 1% of market participants who are calm, confident, energised, focussed, knowledgeable, anticipatory and always in control.

And you know what they are doing this morning?

They have been net liquidity providers, placing valuation-driven bids for specific assets well below market - and getting filled.

To be clear: these are not bets on Trump's reaction function. Nor are they bets on uncertainty been resolved across weeks of difficult tariff negotiations, and perhaps two quarters of economic weakness.

They expect no quick validation of their investment thesis, but feel the entry level for these specific assets affords a margin of safety, and thus higher expected returns.

JA

Singapore PM Lawrence Wong’s short video to citizens explained how we, too should be thinking about this moment ‘with clear eyes’.

Yet since Wednesday, all sorts of financial market celebrities have been begging Trump to pivot or texting The Treasury Secretary furiously: it may be dawning on these financial market celebrities that for the first time in twenty or thirty years, it’s not about them.

Last week the leveraged momentum voting machine had a head on collision with Benjamin Graham’s weighing machine.

It may be a while before the former emerges from the repair shop. For patient capital, that is fine.

For impatient capital, not so much because as experienced as he is, Bessent is not going to save you.

Clean things up eventually, sure; but he is not going to save you.

Markets have put too much faith in Bessent’s ability to influence a man (Trump) whose sole influencer is himself.

We could do what so many others are posting or writing about: predict (gamble) when Trump might be forced to pivot.

I don’t think that is a wise strategy.

Better: pencil in 0% real US GDP in both of Q2 and Q3 2025 then ask what’s then the organic clearing price for the S&P500 and US credit? In the absence of a pivot which I do not think is imminent, lower and much wider remain the answer.

There has been no hint of a Trump pivot this weekend, so the vol-adjusted reduction in positions, and the churn, will continue.

What do we do?

Be like the 1%.

Not that 1% - the leveraged beta shills who confused brains with a bull market.

No, be like the 1% of market participants who are calm, confident, energised, focussed, knowledgeable, anticipatory and always in control.

And you know what they are doing this morning?

They have been net liquidity providers, placing valuation-driven bids for specific assets well below market - and getting filled.

To be clear: these are not bets on Trump's reaction function. Nor are they bets on uncertainty been resolved across weeks of difficult tariff negotiations, and perhaps two quarters of economic weakness.

They expect no quick validation of their investment thesis, but feel the entry level for these specific assets affords a margin of safety, and thus higher expected returns.

JA

Singapore PM Lawrence Wong’s short video to citizens explained how we, too should be thinking about this moment ‘with clear eyes’.

Yet since Wednesday, all sorts of financial market celebrities have been begging Trump to pivot or texting The Treasury Secretary furiously: it may be dawning on these financial market celebrities that for the first time in twenty or thirty years, it’s not about them.

Last week the leveraged momentum voting machine had a head on collision with Benjamin Graham’s weighing machine.

It may be a while before the former emerges from the repair shop. For patient capital, that is fine.

For impatient capital, not so much because as experienced as he is, Bessent is not going to save you.

Clean things up eventually, sure; but he is not going to save you.

Markets have put too much faith in Bessent’s ability to influence a man (Trump) whose sole influencer is himself.

We could do what so many others are posting or writing about: predict (gamble) when Trump might be forced to pivot.

I don’t think that is a wise strategy.

Better: pencil in 0% real US GDP in both of Q2 and Q3 2025 then ask what’s then the organic clearing price for the S&P500 and US credit? In the absence of a pivot which I do not think is imminent, lower and much wider remain the answer.

There has been no hint of a Trump pivot this weekend, so the vol-adjusted reduction in positions, and the churn, will continue.

What do we do?

Be like the 1%.

Not that 1% - the leveraged beta shills who confused brains with a bull market.

No, be like the 1% of market participants who are calm, confident, energised, focussed, knowledgeable, anticipatory and always in control.

And you know what they are doing this morning?

They have been net liquidity providers, placing valuation-driven bids for specific assets well below market - and getting filled.

To be clear: these are not bets on Trump's reaction function. Nor are they bets on uncertainty been resolved across weeks of difficult tariff negotiations, and perhaps two quarters of economic weakness.

They expect no quick validation of their investment thesis, but feel the entry level for these specific assets affords a margin of safety, and thus higher expected returns.

JA

Singapore PM Lawrence Wong’s short video to citizens explained how we, too should be thinking about this moment ‘with clear eyes’.

Yet since Wednesday, all sorts of financial market celebrities have been begging Trump to pivot or texting The Treasury Secretary furiously: it may be dawning on these financial market celebrities that for the first time in twenty or thirty years, it’s not about them.

Last week the leveraged momentum voting machine had a head on collision with Benjamin Graham’s weighing machine.

It may be a while before the former emerges from the repair shop. For patient capital, that is fine.

For impatient capital, not so much because as experienced as he is, Bessent is not going to save you.

Clean things up eventually, sure; but he is not going to save you.

Markets have put too much faith in Bessent’s ability to influence a man (Trump) whose sole influencer is himself.

We could do what so many others are posting or writing about: predict (gamble) when Trump might be forced to pivot.

I don’t think that is a wise strategy.

Better: pencil in 0% real US GDP in both of Q2 and Q3 2025 then ask what’s then the organic clearing price for the S&P500 and US credit? In the absence of a pivot which I do not think is imminent, lower and much wider remain the answer.

There has been no hint of a Trump pivot this weekend, so the vol-adjusted reduction in positions, and the churn, will continue.

What do we do?

Be like the 1%.

Not that 1% - the leveraged beta shills who confused brains with a bull market.

No, be like the 1% of market participants who are calm, confident, energised, focussed, knowledgeable, anticipatory and always in control.

And you know what they are doing this morning?

They have been net liquidity providers, placing valuation-driven bids for specific assets well below market - and getting filled.

To be clear: these are not bets on Trump's reaction function. Nor are they bets on uncertainty been resolved across weeks of difficult tariff negotiations, and perhaps two quarters of economic weakness.

They expect no quick validation of their investment thesis, but feel the entry level for these specific assets affords a margin of safety, and thus higher expected returns.

JA